Ianology

對學術的執著一生的季羨林反映學術自由的重要性

2009-07-22T20:52:00.000-07:00

转－－－－http://lunkayun.blogspot.com/2009/07/blog-post_12.html

我國的國學大師，季羨林離世，享年九十八歲，也是笑喪。但在中國甚至世人來說，失去一位不可多得的學者，實在是一大損失。

有人說北有季羨林，南有饒宗頤。兩位都是現今國學上最有實力的一位。後者能夠安居於香港，可以無憂繼續研究其學術領域，是這拜香港這個自由地方所賜。

但是前者季前輩卻沒有這個福份，文革被批鬥，成為政治上的棋子，使他生活艱苦，但以他的忍耐能夠渡過難關實在是世人之福，如果他沒有這個能耐，在文革中壓迫死去，我們的學術領域上就少了很多珍貴資訊，實在要感謝他的貢獻。

他執著的學術使命是如何珍貴，值得我們這一代人學習，但同樣地值得我們這一代去思考。

就是「學術自由」的重要性，知識並不是為國家，更並不是為黨，而是為的是對真理的追求，才是知識真正的因由，其他的只是衍生出來的副產品以及其增值服務，核心概念才是最重要，不能本未倒置。

如果沒有學術自由，科技有多好也是枉然，美國能夠成為當代頂級大國，就是它的人民享有自由的觀念。讓大家可以不用擔心任何環境去尋找真理，發展文化、科技，促進社會的進步。

我們這個社會若沒有自由之意義，若如季前輩當年的悲衰，就是我們國家的悲衰。

現在國家雖然說是進步，還要科教興國，但是沒有自由的基礎，除時可以在網上發放訊被「河蟹」掉了，那會是有學術自由嗎?

劉曉波的知識份子被拉進去，不知明日如何，季羨林離逝，北大說要什麼治喪委員會，甚為諷刺。

大家都是搞學術，為何有如此的不平等條約在當中呢?人民搞學術，真的只能為黨嗎?

雷人的标语广告

2009-02-23T00:43:00.000-08:00

1、莫名其妙版
“今天，你税了吗？”山西税务干部的标语。

2、幽默风趣版
“外地车辆在河南境内一般不被罚款。”河南警方的标语。
“横卧铁轨，不死也要坐牢。”铁路旁的标语。

3、啼笑皆非版
“放火烧山，牢底坐穿。”林业系统缺乏法律常识的标语。
“坚决打击河南籍犯罪分子。” 广东警方充满地域歧视的标语。
“光缆不含铜，偷盗要判刑。”山东电力的标语。

4、断章取义版
“投案自首是犯罪”，拐弯过去接着写道：分子的唯一出路。
“群众有困”下面是：难找警察。

5、混淆概念版
动物园标语：保护野生动物就是保护我们自己！

6、语出惊人版
“发展内衣制造业是我们的基本国策。”以生产内衣闻名的广东盐步镇的标语。
“严禁越级上访和集体上访。”湖南省公然违反宪法和党章的标语。

7、另类超前版
“爱我可以，但不许动手动脚。”校园里保护草地的标语。
“**的，离这里远点，别让我踩着！“花园里警告搞对象者的标语。
“轻轻地吻我，可别太使劲，弄疼了我，我就扎你”保护鲜花的标语。

8、语法混乱版
“坚决打击流产女婴。”打击对象竟然是流产女婴。

9、辱骂诅咒版
“偷井盖者抓住剁手”、“此处大小便者是猪”。
当然，最有规模和创意的标语出自计划生育系统：
“国家兴旺，匹夫有责；计划生育，丈夫有责”
“宁添十座坟，不添一个人”
“宁愿家破，不要国亡”。

10、最让人目瞪口呆的标语出自山东省日照市
“热烈欢迎全国xx系统领导来日”…

另：
1、河南囯道旁：抢劫警车是违法的。

2、铜仁某屠宰场：用“三个代表”指导我们的屠宰工作。

3、山东聊城监狱：人民罪犯人民爱，人民罪犯爱人民。

4、安徽农村信用社：人死债不烂，父债子来还。

5、江苏农村多处可见：宁可血流成河，不准超生一个。

6、河北电网：严禁触摸电线，五万伏高压，一触即死，不死法办。

7、重庆市人和镇某配种场：人和良种猪配种场。

8、浦东新区：垃圾分类，从我做起。

9、呼和浩特市旅游广告：忽视谁都别忽视呼市，忽悠谁都不许忽悠游客。

10、上海有线电视：一次性交150元，全年96套任你选

取经

2009-02-19T23:19:00.001-08:00

唐僧师徒一行经历九九八十一难终于见到了如来佛求取真经。
如来问：“你们带U盘了么？”
唐僧师徒……
如来又问：“移动硬盘呢？”
……
如来继续问：“IPOD也可以。”
悟空挖起耳朵来。
如来叹了口气：“那你们就原路回去吧，我用QQ传给你们。”
唐僧：“靠，早知道加你QQ就完了。”

五大常任理事国的真实地位

2009-02-19T23:17:00.000-08:00

美国：想打谁就打谁；
英国：美国打谁我就打谁；
法国：谁打我我打谁；
俄罗斯：谁骂我我打谁；
中国：谁打我我骂谁……

Best Photos from Reuters

2009-02-19T22:24:00.000-08:00

The best ever collection ever seen, its from reuters. Really amazing photos that speaks some everything. Check out some 97 awesome photos after the jump !

Hello there! If you are new here, you might want to subscribe to the RSS feed for updates on this topic.

A Russian photo site

2009-02-18T22:31:00.000-08:00

Marvelous!! photos.
here is the site

中国人遭遇全球海盗图

2008-11-26T21:57:00.000-08:00

时间：2006年4月4日韩国“东源628”号渔船被索马里海盗劫持船上共有25名船员，其中3名来自中国
时间：2006年5月15日韩国两艘渔船被索马里海盗劫持两艘船上共有22人，其中10名来自中国

时间：2006年4月18日台湾“庆丰华168”号渔船被索马里海盗劫持船上共有15名船员，其中10名来自中国大陆（有1名被撕票），2名来自台湾
中国铁矿石进口航线
时间：2008年9月17日中国对外贸易运输总公司香港子公司的货船被索马里海盗劫持船上共有25名船员，其中23名来自中国大陆，1名来自香港
时间：2007年5月16日一艘台湾渔船被索马里海盗劫持船上有8名大陆船员，4名台湾船员
中国原油进口航线
时间：2008年11月14日
地点：肯尼亚沿海渔场
中国天津远洋渔业公司的渔船“天裕8号”被索马里海盗劫持船上共有25名渔民，其中16名来自中国大陆，1名来自台湾
时间：2007年5月15日
两艘坦桑尼亚籍渔船被索马里海盗劫持两艘船上共有24名船员，其中10名来自中国

------南方周末

gmail里面的Gtalk很强大

2008-11-26T03:32:00.000-08:00

最近用了gmail里面的Gtalk 加了个翻译机器人。发现实在是强大，比牛津辞典强多啦
下面是我输入的几个词，居然都能译出来
me: 百度
中翻英: Baidu
me: 雅虎
中翻英: Yahoo
me: 新浪
中翻英: Sina
me: 布什
中翻英: Bush
me: 费德勒
中翻英: Federer
me: 纳达尔
中翻英: Nadal
me: 罗纳尔迪尼奥
中翻英: Ronaldinho
me: 胡锦涛
中翻英: Hu Jintao
me: 火狐
中翻英: Firefox
me: 陈奕迅
中翻英: Eason Chan
me: 六人行
中翻英: Friends
me: 马英九
中翻英: Ma Ying-jeou
me: 费兹杰拉德
中翻英: Fitzgerald
me: 爱情呼叫转移
中翻英: Call for Love
me: 天下无贼
中翻英: A World Without Thieves
me: 卧虎藏龙
中翻英: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
me: 南水北调
中翻英: South-North Water Diversion
me: 蔡英文
中翻英: Tsai Ing-wen
me: 文汇报
中翻英: Wen Wei Po
me: 春晚
中翻英: Spring Festival Evening Show
me: 庾澄庆
中翻英: Harlem Yu
me: 李嘉欣
中翻英: Michelle Reis
me: 十面埋伏
中翻英: House of Flying Daggers
me: 画皮
中翻英: The Painted
me: 伊辛巴耶娃
中翻英: Isinbayeva
me: 万科
中翻英: Vanke
me: 新京报
中翻英: The Beijing News
me: 三峡好人
中翻英: Still Life
me: 陈冠希
中翻英: Edison
me: 钟欣桐
中翻英: Gillian Chung

关于巩俐移民

2008-11-24T02:37:00.000-08:00

巩俐移民新加坡——忘祖背宗；
巩俐移民美国——卖国贼；
巩俐移民加拿大——轻微的卖国贼；
巩俐移民日本——十恶不赦的卖国贼：
巩俐移民瑞士——保持中立；
巩俐移民梵蒂冈——天哪，她要升天了！
巩俐移民西班牙——那些可恶的斗牛士！
巩俐移民葡萄牙——葡萄真能有利于大脑吗？
巩俐移民冰岛——皮真厚，能抗冻；
巩俐移民肯尼亚——深入虎穴，盗取马拉松秘笈；
巩俐移民伊拉克——候选战火女烈士；
巩俐移民阿富汗——赞助修复巴米扬的第一步……最后一步是修一个同样高度、巩俐模样的观世音；
巩俐移民埃塞俄比亚——崇高的国际主义精神；
巩俐移民孟加拉国——崇高的人道主义精神；
巩俐移民阿尔巴尼亚——为了重新点燃欧洲的唯一明灯；
巩俐移民越南——为了拉小兄弟一把；
巩俐移民古巴——为了社会主义事业能够跨越太平洋后接轨；
巩俐移民朝鲜——她真的疯了！快逼她喝下《黄金甲》里的中药！

Today In History--11/20

2008-11-22T02:56:00.000-08:00

1963年11月22日美国总统肯尼迪遇刺身亡

·1902年11月22日纽约威廉斯堡大桥起火（图文）
·1902年11月22日国当时最大制造商克-克虏伯去世（图文）
·1916年11月22日美国小说家杰克-伦敦逝世（图文）
·1943年11月22日中英美领导人举行开罗会议（图文）
·1945年11月22日印度发生国民军审判事件
·1954年11月22日苏联政治家维辛斯基逝世
·1956年11月22日第十六届墨尔本奥运会开幕（图文）
·1962年11月22日苏联建设当时世界最长的地下输水管道...详细
·1962年11月22日我国边防部队在中印边界全线主动停火（图文）
·1963年11月22日第一届新兴力量运动会闭幕
·1963年11月22日美国总统肯尼迪遇刺身亡（图文）
·1975年11月22日胡安-卡洛斯出任西班牙国王（图文）
·1989年11月22日微缩景区“锦绣中华”在深圳开幕（图文）
·1989年11月22日黎巴嫩新总统遇刺身亡...详细
·1990年11月22日撒切尔夫人告别唐宁街（图文）
·1993年11月22日马来西亚“橡胶大王”李莱生去世...详细
·1995年11月22日巴林银行祸首里森被引渡受审...详细

REPORT: Bush's Backward Sprint To The Finish

2008-11-22T02:44:00.000-08:00

from thinkprogress.org

In its “sprint to the finish,” the Bush administration is working tirelessly to enact or alter a wide array of federal regulations that would weaken government rules protecting consumers, workers, and the environment.

As Rep. Nick Rahall (D-WV), chairman of the House Natural Resources Committee, told the Wall Street Journal, “This administration will stop at nothing to jam through as many reckless proposals as they can before the clock runs out.”
The Wonk Room and ThinkProgress are keeping a close eye on Bush’s Backward Sprint to the Finish, and have compiled a document to keep tabs on both the proposed and already enacted changes. Here are some examples:

Cutting back Medicaid: New rules “narrowed the scope of services that can be provided to poor people under Medicaid’s outpatient hospital benefit.”
Allowing mining near the Grand Canyon: A proposed rule by the Bureau of Land Management would prevent Congress from ordering emergency withdrawal of federal land from mining claims. The House Natural Resources Committee “issued such a withdrawal order in June for about 1 million acres near the Grand Canyon.”

Allowing more emissions from power plants:: The Environmental Protection Agency is “finalizing new air-quality rules that would make it easier to build coal-fired power plants, oil refineries and other major polluters near national parks and wilderness areas” by weakening the Clean Air Act.
Click here to download a pdf of the report.

小笑话

2008-11-22T02:09:00.000-08:00

部队驻扎在北极圈内。“根本不算冷，”一个老兵说：“我在阿拉斯加呆过，那地方才冷呢！连炉子里的火都冻住了，怎么吹也吹不灭。”“这算什么！”另一个老兵不服气，“在我呆过的一个地方，在讲话时，话一出口就冻住了！着样一来，我们只得把冰冻单词放在开水里融化，才能理解命令！”

革命日记：1949年9月28日，我被捕了，他们拷打我，没招！
29日，他们用钱诱惑我，没招！
30号，他们派来了女特务.....我招了！
第二天，我还要招时，TMD解放了！

护士看到病人在病房喝酒，就走过去小声叮嘱说：“小心肝！”病人微笑道：“小宝贝。”

唐僧西行遇一女妖，观其乳丰臀肥，故欲行房事，女妖见状惊呼：长老！小女月经在身恐有行房不便！唐僧听罢双手合一道：阿弥陀佛，贫僧正为取经而来！

一男子上车掏钱买票，结果带出一个避孕套。后面一女士喊道：“这位先生，你二弟的工作服掉了！

日本人说: 一天一杯奶，拯救一个民族。
中国人说：一天一杯奶，消灭一个民族。
小时候：国外的资本家　把牛奶倒进河里。
长大了：中国的资本家　把化工原料送进婴儿口里.

计生站新口号：每天一斤奶，降到10亿人

一个很有味道的网站

2008-11-21T22:34:00.000-08:00

今天看到一个网站 flash的。做的很有中国味。很难得。
但作者好像不是中国的，马来西亚的据说是。贴出来看看。

作者：Jonathan Yuen 可以去亲自看一下

一个荷兰女生的创意视频

2008-11-20T02:41:00.000-08:00

一个荷兰女生的创意视频，很酷啊。

看完觉得叹为观止！！！

可以上她的个人网站，有很多创意视频http://www.evelienlohbeck.com/films.html

选了几个贴一下喽

1. Notebook

2. Bird Catch

对了，还有她的博客
http://evelienlohbeck.blogspot.com/

Obama and Bush: A Contrast in Popularity

2008-11-10T21:27:00.000-08:00

Gallup Poll - U.S. News

PRINCETON, NJ -- Monday's White House meeting between President George W. Bush and President-elect Barack Obama presents a remarkable contrast between one of the least popular two-term presidents in modern times at the close of his administration, and one of the most popular candidates to win the presidency.

According to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Nov. 6-8, only 27% of Americans approve of the job Bush is doing as president. This contrasts with the 70% of Americans holding a favorable view of Obama.

Although this contrast between Obama and Bush is based on different measures -- presidential job approval and general favorability -- the ratings produced by the two typically track very closely for U.S. presidents, and thus provide a good indication of the vast popularity gap that exists between Bush and Obama.

Additionally, nearly two-thirds of Americans say they are confident in Obama's ability to be a good president, similar to his 70% favorable reading.
Gallup will be tracking all three of these measures -- Bush job approval, Obama favorability, and Obama confidence -- for the entire presidential transition period, and reporting the results on the basis of three-day rolling averages, similar to Gallup's previous reporting of the presidential trial heats.
Obama's Historic Popularity

Obama's favorable ratings from the American people have increased since the election -- rising to 70%, up from 61% in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Nov. 1-3. But even the pre-election 61% reading broke records, marking the highest rating for any presidential candidate in the 1992-2008 period in which Gallup measured favorability using the current question.
Gallup also occasionally measures favorability using the "scalometer" format that it routinely employed between 1956 and 1992, in which respondents are asked to rate individuals on a 10-point scale, from "+5" at the high end to "-5" at the low end (with no zero midpoint).

In an Oct. 23-26 poll, Obama scored a 37% highly favorable rating on this measure (+4 and +5 on the scale), on par with several earlier popular presidential candidates, including Ronald Reagan in 1984, Jimmy Carter in 1976, Richard Nixon in 1968 and 1972, and John Kennedy and Nixon in 1960. (Obama's +37 contrasts with McCain's +28.)
Bush's Unwelcome Distinction

With barely two months remaining in his second term, Bush could quite possibly finish with the lowest final job approval score of any president serving out his term in at least a half century. His current 27% job approval rating is below Harry Truman's final rating of 32% in December 1952, as well as Carter's 34% in December 1980. No other president since the advent of polling was rated below 49% as he was leaving office.

As was recently reported by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones, the 29.4% average job approval rating for Bush in the third quarter of this year (from July 20-Oct. 19) was one of the worst Gallup has measured for any president in the last half century and, thus far, it appears his rating for the fourth quarter could be even worse.

Over the next two months, Gallup Poll Daily tracking will document whether Bush receives an "exit bounce" in job approval ratings similar to the one that occurred for his father in the three-month period between October 1992 and the time he left office in January 1993. The elder Bush's approval rating rose from 34% right before the 1992 election (which he lost to Bill Clinton) to 56% by the end of his term. Lesser exit bounces were seen for Clinton and Reagan, who each completed two terms in office.
Bottom Line

Presidential transitions are always fascinating spectacles, but Monday's White House encounter between Bush and Obama promises to be especially so because of the historic aspect of the nation's first black president-elect taking a step closer to assuming the highest office. It will also be fascinating because of the sharp contrast between Bush and Obama in popularity. At no time in a half century -- and maybe more -- has a president as beleaguered in public opinion as Bush been replaced by someone so highly esteemed. The transition from Truman to Dwight Eisenhower in 1953 may have approached this, but while Gallup documented Truman's final approval rating of 32% in December 1952, Gallup had not yet instituted favorability readings, and thus provided no measure of Eisenhower's popularity at that time. What the Bush vs. Obama contrast might mean for Obama's ability to enjoy an extended honeymoon with the American public after his inauguration on Jan. 20 remains to be seen.
Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,546 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Nov. 6-8, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Palin on the media

2008-11-08T01:58:00.000-08:00

Sarah Palin stopped tonight to answer a few questions from the Alaskan press in an attempt to dispel some of the recent damaging media reports about her involvement in the McCain campaign. “I know that I know that I know that there was nothing done wrong in the campaign,” she said. Palin complained that the other 49 states “aren’t quite there” like Alaska because they don’t allow the same “equal opportunities and equal treatment.” She then argued that, while has been some “fairness and objectivity” by some in the media, “there have been some stinkers.” Watch Keith Olbermann’s report:

Defending the purchase of her fancy, expensive clothes during the campaign, she claimed, “I never asked for anything more than maybe a Diet Dr. Pepper once in a while.”

唯独韩国没有要求

2008-11-07T01:12:00.000-08:00

各国对游泳比赛蛙泳、仰泳、蝶泳、自由泳×100、200、400、1500导致金牌过多感到非常不满，纷纷要求增加自己优势项目的金牌数目。
巴西提出：足球应该分为3人、5人、7人、11人×沙滩、室内、草地。
中国提出：乒乓球应该分为直板、横板、直板双打、直板单打、直板横板混双。跳水应该分为1m 2m 3m 4m 5m 6m 7m 8m 9m 10m
英国提出：马术应该分成黑马马术、白马马术、红马马术、褐马马术、皇马马术、斑马马术。
肯尼亚提出：长跑应该分为10000米、11000米、 12000米、13000米。
日本提出：所有男女混合项目应该增加3p、4 p、5p、6p、7p。。。群p。
泰国提出：除了男子和女子项目外，所有应该加上人妖组。
唯独韩国在这方面没有要求，他们大声喊到：菲尔普斯是韩国人

涉嫌多起斗殴事件

2008-11-07T00:48:00.000-08:00

核心提示近日，歌手臧天朔已被北京警方采取强制措施。据透露，臧天朔被抓的原因为涉恶，他与5年前一起发生在廊坊的斗殴引发命案事件及多起其他恶性事件有关。有网友称，臧天朔案件还牵扯到另外三个明星。青年报11月7日报道臧天朔本来就脾气暴躁、私生活糜烂。”“他之前还利用自己的兄弟摆平过不少事情呢。”“他要没两把刷子，怎么能凭着《朋友》和《等到那一天》两首歌就打遍天下无敌手呢。”……臧天朔被抓了，一连串的“落井下石”接踵而至，无论是对其品行的质疑还是对其嚣张气焰的抨击，均毫不吝啬。

对于老臧涉嫌斗殴一事，大家心中都有太多的问号亟待解答。

“人面广”为朋友两肋插刀?
臧天朔对朋友的豪气大概就跟他的粗犷的身材一样。圈内和他熟识的不少人提起臧天朔总会以“够朋友”来形容。据称，窦唯烧车案他就曾出面帮忙。去年9月，深圳演出的前一天，窦唯刚在北京结束了“烧车案”的庭审，但当日法庭并未当庭宣读审判结果，而窦唯演出前接受媒体采访时表示自己已经不再受这件事情的困扰和影响了。窦唯的一位好友透露，自从窦唯发生了“烧车事件”后，圈内的朋友都很积极去帮他，但搞音乐的人毕竟不像做生意的人脉那么广，真正能帮上忙的人很少。后来，还是臧天朔挺身而出，为他安排好了所有事情，例如找律师、跑关系等等，“老臧在北京很吃得开，圈里就他人面最广，所以窦唯这事情，一直是他在帮忙处理的，如果不是他关系强，估计窦唯最终的审判结果也并不那么乐观。”“吃得开”三个字大概就是对臧天朔“能耐”的最好解读了。

涉嫌多起斗殴事件?

据知情者介绍，臧天朔此次被抓，与其在北京开酒吧时雇用的一批以东北人为主的势力团伙有关。2003年，廊坊火车站广场发生一起聚众斗殴事件，当时在廊坊开办酒吧的孙某与合伙人发生利益冲突，从北京找来一批东北人，与对方在廊坊火车站发生“火拼”，造成一人死亡，而那批东北人背后的老板便是臧天朔。此外，在本市通州区武夷花园发生的一起斗殴事件，幕后人物据称也是臧天朔。臧天朔手下的这伙人与北京市近期接连发生的多起聚众斗殴事件均有关。公安部门随后对多起案件进行并案调查，初步调查出一个以臧天朔为首的势力团伙。

6年没发片有点缺钱?

9月10日左右，坊间就曾传出臧天朔被抓的消息，被抓的原由也有诸多说法，有称是吸毒被抓，也有说法是有个朋友出事后来到臧天朔家中，警察来抓人时家中的狼狗咬伤了警察，因而被带到警察局。不过，当时由于记者多次拨打其本人手机，却一直处于关机状态，加上圈内人对此事知之甚少，网上也没有任何类似的可靠消息。直到昨天才被证实臧天朔是被警方带走。北京市公安局新闻办工作人员昨天在电话中向记者确认，臧天朔于9月28日被正式批准逮捕，目前此事已进入司法程序。在此之前，他最后一次公开露面是今年的8月11日，他以“新歌唱新疆———全国知名音乐人采风团”副团长的身份，与刀郎、凤凰传奇组合、吾酷组合等近20位音乐人前往吐鲁番采风。今年6月他还希望记者为其宣传给灾区儿童创作的歌曲《孩子，别哭》，电话中他还再三表示希望能给灾区做出一点贡献，也希望能够呼吁全社会关注灾区，关注灾区的儿童。

被捕前对慈善和创作歌曲都是挺积极的臧天朔，曾透露过自己最大的梦想就是等自己赚到足够多的钱，找个人很少的地方，每天练练书法、听听音乐，偶尔带着自己的乐队开着车子，走到哪把场地租下来就开唱，不用任何赞助。可是，从2001年至今，6年没有出过专辑的他，只是偶尔参加一些演出，又热衷公益事业，因此财富的积累速度并不快。

事发后

个唱和酒吧事业均荒废?

对于开酒吧做生意，臧天朔的执著可见一斑。从2001年开始，臧天朔就不间断地投资了几家酒吧，但均因生意不好而被迫倒闭。其廊坊的酒吧目前也已经关门。不过，臧天朔去年在南京投资的酒吧似乎目前仍生意兴隆。记者昨天致电该酒吧的老总童先生，对于臧天朔被捕一事，童总表示自己也是看了报纸才知道此事，而臧天朔只是该酒吧的名誉董事长兼音乐总监，并不是实际参股人，所以他的被捕对于该酒吧并没有什么影响。童总告诉记者：“臧天朔是我很好的朋友，但自从一个月前就失去了联系，今天看了报纸才知道他被铺了。”对于臧天朔在该酒吧的身份，童总表示：“臧天朔只是酒吧的名誉董事长兼音乐总监，只是在音乐上给予我们帮助，并在去年酒吧开业时来演出了几场。今年，因为他参与了抗震义演和奥运歌曲创作，所以就没有时间来南京演出了。”童总坦言，酒吧的业务基本上与臧天朔无关，他也从不过问，所以他被捕对酒吧没什么影响。此外，记者也通过南京市公安部门了解到，臧天朔在南京的酒吧治安一直很好，没有发生过任何斗殴等情况。

另悉，臧天朔除了经营酒吧，还有一家名为有戏传媒的公司，经营业务涉及互联网运营、娱乐文化推广、影视及音乐制作推广、广告策划、网络开发、媒体整合和创意等，对于网络媒体、歌手、模特签约经纪代理业务也有所涉及。今年三月份时，臧天朔还签下了一位名叫乌丫的女歌手，并推出了几首原创单曲。不过，有记者循着网上公布的公司地址而去时，发现这家位于北京东四环康家沟的某处公寓楼里的1304室时，发现门外没有任何有戏传媒的公司标识，敲门也无人应答，拨打公司电话提示已停机，而公司网站也已经无法正常浏览。

网友传还有三明星卷入?

本次事件牵涉面大、涉及人员多，截至记者截稿时得到的消息是，臧天朔卷入案中的一个亲戚及“小弟”已经结束调查，于前几日回到家中。尽管脾气火爆、私生活据称不太检点的臧天朔涉嫌斗殴，并不是太令人意外，但昨日也有说法称，臧天朔被卷入此案其实是因为交友不慎，他在廊坊的酒吧虽然是他本人签下的合同，但经营者却是他人，此次也是由于经营者因涉恶被抓，作为酒吧的老板，声名在外的臧天朔自然被卷入其中。不过这些说法均未得到警方的证实。由于人被逮捕，臧天朔的音乐工作室也处于停顿状态。

臧天朔被拘留一事曝光后，一石激起千层浪，不少网友开始揣测整件事件到底是怎么回事，还会不会有熟悉的明星面孔卷入其中。一个叫“丹书光光”的网友甚至还在博客上爆料称，臧天朔只是目前被曝光的明星之一，“据说臧天朔案件还牵扯到另外三个明星”。记者就该网友的说法再次联系到北京市公安局新闻办，一个工作人员在电话中这样回答：“我们只是证实臧天朔涉嫌斗殴被逮捕，其他三位明星的说法我们都不知道。”

皮肤的颜色：奥巴马是黑人还是白人？

2008-11-07T00:38:00.000-08:00

奥巴马竞选成功，世界一片欢腾，很多新闻媒体都庆祝这个突破美国另一个界限的胜利：有色人种担当世界上最重要的职位。美国的媒体说他是第一个黑人总统或有非洲血统的总统，虽然说得比较确切，但是奥巴马到底是黑人还是白人？中国的报纸说他是“非洲裔”总统，这个说法不准确，因为奥巴马不是非洲人，本质上他与非洲没有什么关系，虽然他的父亲是肯尼亚人，但是奥巴马不是非洲裔，他只是具有非洲血统。他其实。是一个彻头彻尾的美国人。在本质上，他其实与一个彻头彻尾的美国白人无异。他生在典型的白人之家，成长在白人之家，受到的教育与一个白人上层社会的孩子无异。他是一个表面黑，实际上白的男人。正是在这个意义上，奥巴马的当选，几乎不出很多人的意外，特别是我们这些在美国生活的人，对奥巴马当选，意外的不多。因为奥巴马是一个在种族问题上两头沾光的幸运的人

是的，奥巴马的皮肤发黑，但是没黑到纯种黑人的地步。他长得更像白人，他的身材面目特征都更是白人。何况他是白人母亲生的，母亲生他的时候18岁，父亲在他出生后不久就离开了，后来再见到他一次，那是奥巴马跟白人祖父母在一起生活，已经十岁了。这个非洲人父亲在奥巴马的生活中完全缺席，几乎不存在。

何况这个父亲又因车祸很早去逝。成年后奥巴马回到肯尼亚，寻找父亲的家人，但是，这种寻找恐怕更多的是象征性的。他说起话来不是黑人，他完全没有黑人口音。他也没有美国黑人的奴隶家史，他不是被贩卖到美国的黑奴的后代。他大学上哥伦比亚大学，法学院上哈佛，所有的教育都是美国中上阶级教育，所以他的内心实际上与一个中上阶级的白人无异。他的肤色使美国黑人认为他代表自己，从而92％的黑人都投奥巴马的票。他的教育使美国中产阶级以上的白人认为他代表自己，52的白人投他的票，特别是高年薪的，年薪20万以上的白人投他的票的比例更高。原因就是奥巴马不是他们中的异类，除了皮肤外，他们和奥巴马相同的地方多于不同的地方。肤色有深有浅，但是对生活在肤色人人都深浅不同的国家，肤色基本不是一个问题，因为人人的肤色都不一样，就是白人，也有南欧白人的橄榄色和北欧白人的粉色的区别。所以奥巴马的肤色对一般白人没有什么影响。可是对黑人有影响，因为黑人把奥巴马看成是自己的代表。对亚裔美国人有一定影响，因为这让他们对自己的皮肤敏感起来。但是亚裔在文化与政治上与白人更接近，所以，奥巴马的肤色对他们投票没有太大的影响。据我所观察，中国人不投奥巴马的票的，大部分不是因为他是黑人，而是因为不喜欢他的空头支票一样的改变的保证。

奥巴马的种族还让他不知不觉地沾光是因为他是一个种族混合的产儿。这是美国的社会理想：人人来到美国，人人都会融合进这个大熔炉里，成为美国人。奥巴马的黑白混血，国家混合是美国梦的化身。奥巴马得益于此种混合，成为美国成功神话的代表，本质上，奥巴马并不是移民的美国梦的化身，他就是在美国出生的美国人。可是由于他的种族，他似乎就成了贫困的人来到美国实现美国梦的化身。历史上任何时候都是观念的作用大于真实，人们的观念如此，真实就不重要了，美国人需要美国梦，世界也需要美国梦。奥巴马不知不觉地成了美国梦的化身。

美国的种族问题是一个非常复杂的现象，里面的权力关系也非常复杂。如同中国的城市人和农村人的关系。比如一个北京人可能会歧视一个穿得不一样的陕西的农民，但是对温州地区的农民，他们穿着不合体的西服，歧视的程度可能会小一些。据说上海人歧视苏北人，但是对天津的人来说，苏北苏南人没什么太多区别。他们都是南方人。这么多微妙而复杂的权力关系构成中国人地区与地区之间的关系。美国的种族关系也很类似。比如，美国种族权力关系中，中国人是不怎么受歧视的，（历史上的确有排华法案，但是，那个时代种族歧视不是一个议题），因为中国的历史和文化让一般美国人感到敬畏羡慕。中国人沾我们文化的光，有种先天的文化优越。但是，美国的白人女性确一般不会和中国男人结婚，当然大多数白人还没有异族通婚，虽然异族通婚已经正常，但是中国女性与白人结婚的相当多，与黑人结婚的不多。这个原因是既是文化价值、种族关系造成的，也是人的动物性造成的。西方文化构建的中国男人往往没有男人气质（文化意义），现实中的中国男人也通常比白种女人矮小一点儿（动物意义）。一般来说，女性作为雌性动物喜欢比较强壮的雄性动物，两者合起来，再加上中国男人还没有树立自己的男性英雄形象，虽然成龙在改变中国男人在西方文化中英雄形象上有不可磨灭的贡献。但是成龙的形象还是趋于夸张，有的时候反而让人觉得中国男人更奇怪。相反，在美国出生或长大的中国男人就没有这个问题。他们往往器宇轩昂，与美国白人无二异。把他们看成异族异类的也不那么严重。

奥巴马非常幸运，除了他的种族幸运之外，他还沾了性别幸运的光。那是另外一个话题，我以后再说吧。
------BY 沈睿

Progressives Won’t Care If Obama Breaks Pledges

2008-11-06T21:50:00.000-08:00

(CBS/AP) Spurred on by a continued decline in violence, the U.S. military will reduce its presence in Iraq to 14 combat brigades this month - at least two months earlier than originally planned.
Military officials say two brigades from the 101st Airborne Division will leave Iraq this month and only one will be replaced. A brigade is roughly 3,500 soldiers. Initially the 3rd Brigade, 101st Division, was scheduled to leave this month, and the 2nd Brigade, 101st Division, was to leave by February.
On Wednesday, however, the military announced the 2nd Brigade will instead return to its Fort Campbell, Ky., home base this month, after serving for 13 months, rather than the expected 15.
The unit served in northwest Baghdad, where violence has plunged, including a 50 percent decline in overall attacks in the area and a more than 90 percent drop in murders.
That will still leave more than 145,000 troops in Iraq, so it's only a down payment on meeting President-elect Barack Obama's goal of getting all combat brigades out of the country by the end of 2010, reports CBS News security correspondent David Martin.
The U.S. has to get down to just eight brigades in Iraq if it wants to build up its forces in Afghanistan, which Obama has said he will do, and at the same time give troops more time at home, reports Martin.
U.S. forces have also seen a dramatic decline in troop fatalities, with deaths falling to their second lowest monthly level in October. There were 14 U.S. troops killed last month, including seven lost in combat. That total was one more than the 13 deaths in July - the lowest monthly level of the war.
President Bush announced in September that the military would go from 15 to 14 combat brigade in Iraq some time in January - following recommendations from Gen. David Petraeus, then his top Iraq commander.
The decision sparked sharp criticism from Congress members who wanted Petraeus to recommend a swifter and larger drawdown in Iraq. And the plan appeared to push decisions for any more aggressive troop cutbacks to the next administration.
They complained that it made it more difficult to divert additional forces to Afghanistan, where commanders have repeatedly asked for thousands more troops.
At the time, however, Defense Secretary Robert Gates urged a cautious approach in Iraq, saying commanders did not yet believe the security gains were "enduring," and that there was the potential for reversals in the future.
More recently, however, Gates and other officials have talked more insistently about the need to boost troop levels in Afghanistan, noting that the increase cannot take place until more forces come home from Iraq.
Despite the overall drop in violence, nine Iraqis died in three separate bomb attacks that also injured two American soldiers.
Iraqi police reported a suicide bomber rammed his car into a police patrol on the road to Baghdad's airport Wednesday, killing six people and wounding 12 others.
Police said three officers were among those killed in the attack, while four policemen were wounded.
The heavily secured highway leading from central Baghdad to the capital's airport was once among the most dangerous stretches in Iraq. Insurgents staged almost daily attacks with roadside bombs and machine guns on U.S military convoys and civilian vehicles traveling to and from downtown Baghdad.
But security has improved markedly on the highway in the past 18 months since authorities blocked off side streets feeding onto the road put up blast walls along the highway.
Also Wednesday, two U.S. soldiers were wounded in a roadside bomb attack near the town of Karmah west of Baghdad as they responded to reports of a bomb in the area, the U.S. military said. Two Iraqis were killed, while an Iraqi interpreter, two Iraqi Army soldiers and 11 civilians were wounded in the bombing.
An Iraqi security official said the U.S. troops were injured as they rushed to the site of an earlier roadside bomb attack that killed a prominent leader of the local Awakening Council, the term for mostly Sunni groups that have joined forces with the Americans against al Qaeda in Iraq.
Elsewhere, one policeman died and three more were wounded when their patrol hit a roadside bomb in Amarah, 200 miles southeast of Baghdad, police said.
Wednesday's violence follows a series of bombings in Baghdad this week that have killed more than 30 people, and underscores that insurgents still pose a threat.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military said an American soldier died of non-combat related causes.
It was the first death reported since Oct. 29 among the 151,000-strong American military force in Iraq, and brought to at least 4,191 the number of U.S. military members who have died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count.
U.S. officials say attacks in the Iraqi capital are averaging about four a day - down nearly 90 percent from levels of late 2006, when Shiite-Sunni fighting was at its high point and just before the U.S. troop surge that helped bring down violence in the capital. But U.S. commanders warn the security gains are reversible.

海角七号......

2008-11-06T03:51:00.001-08:00

"放弃台湾电影已是多年前的事了，如今却不经意的被牵引到这台湾南部风景优美如画的小镇，这六十年前才存在的"海角七号"。"
"起初是被这台湾三亿最卖座电影名堂所吸引，想窥探这低成本的小品如何能缔造台湾影坛奇迹。然后是被电影中跨時空穿插其中，把爱与怀念化成诗一般的字句所感动。"

"以前不爱看台湾作品是因为片中常有半华语半台语的对白，如今在这部电影中，听起来却是那么的协调。"
"这是一个关于梦想，音乐和爱情的故事。"
"六十年前到六十年后才寄出的情书，结局不完美却震撼人心。"
"六十年前的情书，牵动着六十年后另一段完美的爱情。"
"六十年前站在码头用目光搜寻着爱人的友子，最令我感动。"

普法宣传

2008-11-06T03:32:00.000-08:00

将双手搭（握、抱、环绕等）在陌生少女的肩膀上不算猥亵，也不触犯治安管理条例。

对近期某新闻，网友kinglu发表普法宣传。

----子说

How Obama Won, and What it Means to Blacks

2008-11-06T03:17:00.000-08:00

Here’s a summary of the smartest new political analysis on the Web:by Sara Murray and Gerald F. Seib

(Photo right)President-elect Barack Obama, left, and Vice President-elect Joe Biden wave after Obama’s acceptance speech at his election night party at Grant Park in Chicago, Tuesday night.

The victory of Sen. Barack Obama changed history, and changed the political map, and Politico’s Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin count some of the ways: “He rolled up a series of contested states, from Colorado to Virginia, long out of Democratic reach. And his victory reflected the accuracy of his vision of a reshaped country. Racism, much discussed, turned out to be a footnote, and African-American turnout was not unusually high. Instead, Obama drew his strength from an array of racially mixed, growing areas around cities like Orlando, Washington, Indianapolis, and Columbus on his way to at least 334 electoral votes.”
Obama’s win “was perhaps even more dramatic than his party’s success in congressional races,” leaving Democratic leaders talking about avoiding “the risk of overreaching,” Smith and Martin write. “As grand as the symbolism of Obama’s victory was, it was also a victory for his steady, corporate campaign management. The campaign’s early decision to play on a more ambitious map than other Democratic nominees was the source of his mandate. And the result closely mirrored the PowerPoint presentation his campaign manager, David Plouffe, pitched to sometimes-skeptical audiences of reporters and donors.”
Though race may not have been a big factor in the vote, the election’s outcome was especially poignant for African-Americans, and Henry Louis Gates Jr., writing on theroot.com, tries to put it in perspective. There have been big moments in African-American history before, he says, “but we have never seen anything like this. Nothing could have prepared any of us for the eruption (and, yes, that is the word) of spontaneous celebration that manifested itself in black homes, gathering places and the streets of our communities when Sen. Barack Obama was declared President-elect Obama…
“Each of us will always remember this moment, as will our children, whom we woke up to watch history being made. My colleagues and I laughed and shouted, whooped and hollered, hugged each other and cried. My father waited 95 years to see this day happen, and when he called as results came in, I silently thanked God for allowing him to live long enough to cast his vote for the first black man to become president. And even he still can’t quite believe it!” Though there were many who paved the trail, Gates concludes. “The award for prescience, however, goes to Jacob K. Javits, the liberal Republican senator from New York who, incredibly, just a year after the integration of Central High School in Little Rock, predicted that the first black president would be elected in the year 2000,” which he did in an essay in Esquire magazine in 1958.
The Washington Post’s E.J. Dionne Jr. writes that it’s the beginning of a new era. “Time to hope that the era of racial backlash and wedge politics is over. Time to imagine that the patriotism of dissenters will no longer be questioned and that the world will no longer be divided between ‘values voters’ and those with no moral compass. Time to expect that an ideological label will no longer be enough to disqualify a politician.” Dionne writes that “In choosing Obama and a strongly Democratic Congress, the country put a definitive end to a conservative era rooted in three myths: that a party could govern successfully while constantly denigrating government’s role; that Americans were divided in an irrepressible moral conflict pitting a ‘real America’ against some pale imitation; and that market capitalism could succeed without an active government regulating it in the public interest and modestly redistributing income to temper inequalities.” Looking forward, Dionne concludes that “Obama inherits challenges that could overwhelm any leader and faces constraints that will tax even his exceptional political skills. But the crisis affords him an opportunity granted few presidents to reshape the country’s assumptions, change the terms of debate and transform our politics. The way he campaigned and the way he won suggest that he intends to do just that.”
Salon.com’s Walter Shapiro looks at how Obama pulled off his win. For McCain, of course, the cards were stacked against him. “The financial collapse and the looming deep recession may well have meant that McCain could not have won the election even if he chose Adam Smith as his running mate…This was also the election when Karl Rove’s legacy of empowering the evangelical wing of the Republican Party may have permanently alienated upper-middle-class suburban voters from the GOP. Obama carried all four of the once reliably Republican suburban collar counties surrounding Philadelphia with a victory margin of nearly 200,00 votes.”
To Obama’s credit though, his “triumph was also due to the largest, best organized and most energetic grassroots campaign in American political history. In Ohio, for example, 43 percent of the voters said in exit polls that they were personally contacted by the Obama campaign compared to 36 percent who heard from the McCain campaign. The question did not distinguish between door-knocking (the Obama specialty) and robo-calls (which the McCain camp heavily depended on). In hitherto reliably Republican Indiana, a state where Obama eked out a surprising 23,000-vote victory, the pattern was even more exaggerated…Barack Obama earned his ticket to the Oval Office by running a technically near-flawless campaign, dominating three debates and picking a vice president, Joe Biden, worthy of the office.”

布朗拯救世界

2008-11-06T03:13:00.000-08:00

《南方周末》
----------------
10月13号，著名专栏作家克鲁格曼在《纽约时报》上猛烈赞美了英国首相布朗，说他的金融救市计划可能“拯救了世界”。一个政治家得到一个专栏作家的赞美不足为奇，但令这个赞美分量大增的是，在该文发表的同一天，这个专栏作家顺便得了诺贝尔奖。克鲁格曼，普林斯顿大学经济学教授，因其早年的贸易理论而获2008年经济学诺贝尔奖。英国首相布朗当然也因此沾了光。几天前，他还在为工党政府的民众支持率持续走低而焦头烂额，而现在竟突然被诺奖获得者封为金融风暴中的“救世主”。克鲁格曼封布朗这个救世主称号，是因为在近期的金融风暴中，英国政府首先宣布将要注入大量资金，购买银行股份，旨在解决银行的资金短缺问题，同时恢复民众对银行的信心。说白了，就是银行“部分国有化”。具体来说，英国政府将投入370亿英镑入股银行，从收购苏格兰皇家银行60%以及HBOS 43%股份开始。克鲁格曼之所以对这个“布朗方案”叫好，其实是在指桑骂槐----骂的是美国政府救市的“布什方案”。相比布朗方案，布什方案计划用政府资金去购买银行的呆坏账，而不是买他们的股权。在克鲁格曼看来，布什政府是花钱娶了金融界的“丑女”，而布朗政府则可以从中挑选“美女 ”----谁聪明谁笨，一目了然。当然，如果用反对者的逻辑来看，这些呆账坏账目前是由于特殊情境而被市场低估了，等到市场恐慌消除，丑小鸭还会变成白天鹅，而政府过多介入银行经营，则有可能把白天鹅养成丑小鸭。克鲁格曼认为，布什政府避免国有化方案，是因为共和党“两个凡是”的意识形态偏见：“凡是私有的都是好的，凡是公有的都是坏的”。令布朗和克鲁格曼欢欣鼓舞的是，布朗方案宣布之后，很多发达国家纷纷跟进，表示会追随英国采取类似做法，连美国财长保尔森都掉转方向，表示救市资金中将有很大一部分用于购买银行股份。英国俨然成了银行国有化行动中的领头羊。熟悉克鲁格曼专栏的都知道，他是个铁杆“反共和党”派，基本上他对任何问题的分析都可以归结到“都是共和党的错”这个结论上，哪怕“今天为什么下雨”，都恨不得说成“ 共和党的错”。从这一点来说，布朗也许也不用太为自己受到诺奖得主的赞美而欣喜---与其说克鲁格曼多么欣赏他的方案，不如说他为克鲁格曼又提供一颗攻击布什政府的子弹。但仔细分析，克鲁格曼的批判并不完全有道理。首先，两国政府介入金融危机的时机不同---保尔森的救市计划在9月中旬酝酿而成，而布朗计划则于10月中出台。虽然两者只相差一个月左右，但这段时间金融危机风驰电掣地发展，一个月前的布什政府没有想到国有化这剂“猛药”，也不奇怪。如果布什政府真是他说的意识形态上的“两个凡是主义者”，那又怎么解释它后来的转向呢？其次，两国的政治框架也不同。别忘了英国是内阁制，行政权和立法权掌握在同一个执政党手中，不存在美式的三权分立。美国救市方案出台之后，白宫和国会之间制衡牵扯，众议院否决救市方案初稿，引起举世震惊，但这一幕在英国是很难出现的，因为首相领导着议会的多数党。布朗政府上来就宣布一个激进方案，也不用担心自家后院失火，相比之下，面对民主党占多数席位的国会，布什政府就必须审慎得多。更重要的是，在救市方案问题上，各个国家本来就没有必要吃同一颗药丸。以前有人分析欧洲为什么在现代化过程比较成功，一个重要原因就是它的四分五裂使得每个国家都成为一个制度的“试验田”，最后制度与制度优胜劣汰，去粗取精。在救市问题上，各国又何妨各管齐下，最后优胜劣汰？其实，日本早在90年面临金融危机和经济衰退时，就使用过银行部分国有化方案，十多年下来似乎也收效平平。既然实践是检验真理的唯一标准，总得先让百花齐放，最后才能选出哪朵花最美。事实上最后各国的救市方案也的确是百花齐放，有的注重为银行借贷提供担保，有的注重银行国有化，有的收购银行呆坏账，有的提出减税减息，有的则直接补贴弱势群体，大多数国家都采用了这些方案的某种组合。比如澳大利亚的救市方案包括提供存款担保、对普通家庭的直接补贴和给购房者提供一定资金，德国的方案包括给银行间借贷提供担保、购买银行股权以及购买呆坏帐……自由制度的优越在于其多样性，扼杀这种多样性转而追求“大一统”的救市方案，和“放之四海而皆准”的政府市场关系，才是真的被意识形态蒙蔽了眼睛。既然不能把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里，那就----多编几个篮子吧。

Fox's Carl Cameron: Palin 'didn't understand that Africa was a continent'.

2008-11-06T03:00:00.000-08:00

Today, Fox News’ campaign reporter Carl Cameron unloaded some startling undisclosed reports of Sarah Palin’s incompetence that he had been given off-the-record on the condition they not be released until the conclusion of the campaign:
CAMERON: There was great concern in the McCain campaign that Sarah Palin lacked a degree of knowledgeability necessary to be a running mate, a vice president, and a heartbeat away from the presidency.
We are told by folks that she didn’t know what countries were in NAFTA — the North American Free Trade Agreement. That’d be Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. We’re told that she didn’t understand that Africa was a continent, rather than a series — a country just in itself. A whole host of questions that caused serious problems about her knowledgeability.
Cameron also disclosed that Palin “didn’t accept preparation” for the Katie Couric interview. Watch it:

Krugman

2008-11-03T02:52:00.000-08:00

He didn't say "crash", but he was right in 1994 (for what happened in 1997 - which was when I

started to follow his writings) and again this time. Although I read his NYT columns much less frequently, since W took office he tended to add a partisan paragraph to the end of his column which made him look less objective. While I am with him on most of his criticism on the Bush government, I felt his writing was more emotional than academic and stopped reading him. My view on Krugman is best summarized by that in this Henderson WSJ Op-ed.
1) How bad is the mortgage crisis going to get? - Paul Krugman, March 17 2008
My preferred metric is the ratio of home prices to rental rates. By that measure, average home prices nationally got way too high. We'll probably basically retrace all that. So that's about a 25% decline in overall home prices. Only a fraction of that's happened so far. Of course, it varies a lot. In places like Houston or Atlanta, where home prices have not risen much compared with underlying rents, the decline will be relatively small. In places like Miami or Los Angeles, you could be looking at 40% or 50% declines.
My preferred metric is average income per family vs house price, in addition to Krugman's metric. The US housing price had a multiple (against, income/capita) very close to that of HK in 1997. So I expect similar decline this time.
Krugman then added this pithy remark
But if we think home prices overshot on the way up, why can't they overshoot on the way down too?
Why not the Great Depression?
Because I think we know something that we didn't then. The Federal Reserve was clueless back then. They were only concerned about protecting the nation's gold reserves, and the federal government believed that austerity and cutting spending was the answer to recession. I think we know more than we did then, and just the fact that we have a big federal government is a stabilizing factor. But the current problem is still pretty awesome.
The Paulson plan makes no sense and doesn't solve the problem. All it does is to save his crony i-bankers and the failed hedge fund manager, while punishing the hedge fund managers who bet correctly! There $62tr in CDS according to Big Picture (read his post on the 'blame game'), what can 0.7tr do? So Krugman is right that if the problem is in credit crunch and put your dollar into the credit directly!
----
The Nobel winning paper:
The Role of Geography in DevelopmentPaul KrugmanApril 1998http://www.worldbank.org/html/rad/abcde/krugman.pdf
Other links:
Moment of Truth
Edge of the Abyss
Where Are the Grown-Ups?
and his NYT column RSS
Krugman Helped Us Understand Trade - WSJ
and the negative view focusing on all he has done wrong - Krugman’s Posthumous Nobel by a basher

中国绅士研究

2008-09-23T22:30:00.000-07:00

某种程度上是由于通俗文化的渲染，普通人对清代政治和官吏的印象基本上是负面的，充满了腐败、无能、黑暗的空洞指责。然而如果横向与其他国家比较，中国古代行政体系在大部分时间可说是相当高效的，以一支人数相对很小的官僚队伍就基本上井井有条地管理着这个庞大的帝国，百姓的税收负担也因此相比起欧洲各国来说要轻得多。古代中国为何能仅依靠数万官吏就能治理国家？秘密的答案就是那个与帝国采取合作态度的阶层：中国绅士。

在现代以前，中国历代王朝从未直接统治县以下的社会组织，以至于某些西方学者认为中国古代的乡村在一定程度上是“自治”的，这种“自治”当然是中央集权不彻底的结果。政府对于各级乡村组织的引导和控制是通过儒家政治秩序的教导等软实力来加以实现的，地方上很多细节事务在官方许可的范围内，由地方绅士出面组织执行，政府不会直接干预，而通过承认、鼓励、表彰等方式来予以合法化。两者保持一种在儒家秩序下默契的平衡，因为说到底，帝国的稳定取决于那个庞大的金字塔底座如何反应。

这样，绅士在社会运作中表现出一种双重性质：既支撑国家，又为国家所控制。在中国古代，尤其是两宋以降，帝国政府越来越意识到：国家平稳高效的运作取决于士绅阶层的主动认同与合作，换句话说，必须要在士人中得人心。为此国家就有必要强调意识形态来统合和凝聚整个社会的意见导向，尊孔和科举于是成为不可动摇的根本制度。

科举制在近代中国也遭到广泛的诟病和攻击，但这一中国政治史上的创举也为平民提供了一个相对公平竞争的平台，加强了中国社会阶层之间的垂直流动。根据何炳棣的研究，宋明两朝进士中均有一半左右出身平民，清朝也有38%的比例，这种进入社会上层的机会开放，在古代的其他社会中是绝无仅有的。清末废除科举时，人们并没有意识到：那其实不仅仅是一项考试制度，更是集合文化、教育、政治、社会等诸多功能于一身的根本机制。废除科举的本意是想让士人绝了退路，转而接受近代教育，但它却引发了一个始料未及的严重社会后果：政府原有的录取人才的途径自此断绝，知识分子日益边缘化，民国初年军人和商人的政治参与日益强烈。而当中国逐渐放弃科举时，西方却参照它引进了新的官僚考试录用制度。

不论如何，科举在中国近古历史上的重要性是绝对不能低估的。它为社会与国家之间搭起了一座桥梁，是统治阶级中官僚、士人、地主三者的纽带，使他们彼此可以借由循环流转。政府通过控制科举制度而将绅士的地位合法化，国家的稳定也由这一意识形态的认同而得以确立。一旦国家和绅士的主要利益不一致（如晚清时北方战乱，南方绅士却袖手旁观，倡导“东南互保”），就会出现一个危险的局面，绅士得以挑战政府的权威，在各自明哲保身的心态下，国家的完整也就此不复存在。

在整个清代，知县的任期都相当短暂，平均不超过三四年，而且由于回避制度，他们又都是外地人。这使得地方官很难熟悉本县，也难以实施长期计划。在这种情况下地方绅士的作用尤其重要，因为他们是唯一能合法地代表当地社群与官吏共商地方事务，参与政治过程的集团。并且在中国传统观念中，对家乡的归属感总是特别重要，即使为恶如魏忠贤，也特别注重自己在原籍的名声，因此士绅均感到有责任捍卫和促进本地社区福利，而这种责任感是作为外乡人的州县官们所不具有的。

他们与地方官的互动尤其微妙，一方面，地方士绅与州县官实际上出自同一个特权集团，需要彼此支持和协助；另一方面，他们所代表的利益有时又不尽相同。州县官作为一个外地人，只带着为数不多的随从到外地就任，如果没有地方士绅的主动合作，几乎不可能取得任何政绩。如果全部由他来负责，也根本忙不过来，明初时朱元璋在《教民榜文》中就规定：民间婚姻、田地、斗殴之类的一切小事的争端，“不许辄便告官”，而要由地方绅士和长老理断解决。州县官的前途名声也往往决定于这些地方上的绅士。

这种状况促进了一种结合，即地方官通常会尽力避免得罪这些地方领袖。如果他们恰好是横行乡里的土豪劣绅，人民当然更期望政府力量的直接介入。不过政府直接掌握乡、村基层组织的努力，在解决一些问题的同时，也带来了许多新的问题。最突出的就是官僚队伍大为膨胀，而这里增加的行政支出必然又意味着加重百姓的税收负担；其次则是国家权力的伸张直接打击了社会力量的主动性，导致很少再有绅士或企业家愿意像明清时那样主动地修造工程、筹款济贫，以造福乡里。

对绅士阶层的深入了解，毫无疑问是理解明清社会有效运作的关键，在这方面，张仲礼《中国绅士研究》绝对是当之无愧的经典，出版五十年来迄今无人能出其右。值得注意的是：张先生的研究大量使用第一手的原始史料，从看似零散的地方志、族谱、笔记中整合出一个完整的形象，以一种教科书式的精确、简练的笔触，有力地证实了全书的命题：即绅士地位不仅是道德责任，也是一种谋生之道。为此他详尽地论证了清代绅士的收入（平均是平民的16倍），及这一经济因素产生的社会后果。

对绅士收入的严密考证也显示出了作者作为一个经济史学者的兴趣，不过本书却基本没有谈到这一阶层的经济支出问题。按本书推论，一个知县平均年收入3万两白银，似乎给人一种相当富裕的印象，但瞿同祖在《清代地方政府》一书中以大量案例无懈可击地证实：州县官除了养家外还要支付自己私人雇佣的幕友、长随的薪金，有时一个县令的薪水还不够支付幕友的报酬，此外还会被迫捐钱填补亏空，负担招待途经的上司，致送各种例费……。州县官的办公经费是本人自己负担的，曾有人建议列入政府预算，但朝廷不愿提高税率，最终还是作罢。在这么多巨额支出下，地方官通常并没有我们想象的那么富裕，清廉者甚至会相当穷困。

在深入了解清代基层官吏和行政体系上，《清代地方政府》极富价值，适可与《中国绅士研究》互为参照。两位作者同样具备缜密全面的逻辑思考和原始史料解读能力，身世背景和治学途径也都相似，只是专业领域一在法制史，一在经济史，因此立足点和视角有所区隔。遗憾的是，《中国绅士研究》上下篇分别出版于1955年和1962年，而《清代地方政府》1962年问世，两书彼此都未将对方列入参考书目，否则彼此印证，也许能碰撞出更为深刻全面的观点。

载2008-10-26《南方都市报》